Tuesday, December 1

The week has started and stocks seem to head up endlessly.  Those who followed my advice and went short on the DAX @5.777 were able to gain a maximum  of 150 points.

Low volume at the start of last week (but also through the etire month) suggested that the current trend was about to brake.  That has definately be proven wrong by the latest volume figures and the two last session that brought the DAX to 5.781,00 points.  Almost 200 points higher compared to Friday.  Thus I’m convinced that we’ll see new highs in the coming months.

Currently the DAX is trading @5.781,00.  Expect a slight technical correction (downwards) in the next two trading sessions.  After that a new rally with enough steam to reach 5.860-80 points is possible.

Also the EUR is trading higher against the USD (now @1,51).  On September 24 I told you (via Twitter) that we would be experiencing all-time highs by the end of the year.  Now with only 30 days left, we might need more time (~50-60 days).

Thursday, November 13

As I told you last week I expected the DAX to reach the 5.888-mark.  That did not happen, but I was still able to gain some 10 points on a call.
Volatility is now relatively low and it does not seem as it is able to fuel to rally any longer.

The DAX is now trading 1.33% lower @5.710,75.  Expect a slight technical correction during tomorrow’s early trading hours.  That might still turn to be a good entry point to go short.

Monday, November 16

The DAX had a positive week and closed 10 points above what I expected. Today the index went up 2% (@5.800,77). Technically speaking we might see the DAX testing the 5.888-mark. A break-through could signal a new bull-market wave.

Monday, November 11

The coming week will be influenced by lots of reports like the intial claims, Treasury budget, trade balance, etc.  I do not expect those reports to be of any comfort to investors.  Major world indeces lost points during the last few weeks.  This trend was interrupted last week, pushing the DAX higher for the week.

Technically seen, we are experienceing a positive trend.  I thus expect the DAX (now trading @5.598,19) to end somewhere @5.680-50.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be negative.  Monday and Friday postive.  Watch out for high volatility as important news flush the markets.

Monday, September 21

The DAX is now trading 70 points down (5.627,00).  Positive news isn’t helping anymore, thus indicating that the markets are overbought.

The put (on DAX @5.721,89) I’m holding is clearly in positive territory (94 points).  I plan on keeping this position as I expect a negative week, eventually seeing the DAX trading at about 5.580,00.

Monday, 11/14

I expect this week to end on the downside for the DAX at around 5.550 (closed today’s session at 5.620,24). If we have a look at the chart, we can undoubtedly notice that the upward potential has lost ground. A technical correction is to be expected.

I’m currently holding a put bought at 5.614,84

Thursday, September 3

Yesterday I sold my puts on the DAX @5.284,00 (with a 146-points-gain).  See my Twitter updates.

On a previous blog entry I said that the index was heading south for the week (5.350-300).  It went even below what I expected.  I don’t expect major moves on the last two trading sessions, nor do I see the DAX trading at more than 50 points (either up or down) from where it is right now (5.332,00).  Let’s see what the next days look like to evaluate future investment strategies.

Platinum

I’m going long on platinum with “mini future long” BN3H6L, bought @ E 1.73.  Platinum is the worst performer of the commodities on a 52-week basis (-15%).  As of now it’s trading $ 1.240,50.  Technically seen, once the $ 1.295 barrier is reached (year-high) it could proceed its rally towards new highs (~ $1.400 – if not more).  Either way it’s a buy.  Growing car sales (exhaust pipe filters are made out of platinum), stricter European car-emissions standards, and strikes in South Africa are driving factors.

Bearish

Later today I sold a put on the DAX (90-points-gain) I bought last week.  I’m still holding one bought on August 4th that is now +/- 0.

I do think a correction is very likely this week, that might see the DAX trading at 5,350 points for the end of the week, possibly even lower – 5,300 points- during the week (currently at 5.477,06).

Crude oil

On May 7th I bought $DXO @$3.30 (long ETF on crude oil) when oil was trading at around $60. I was planning a long-term strategy and it has currently provided me a non-realized return on invesment of 42.5%.  I must say I’ve been thinking about clearing the position last week when WTI was trading at $73-74, but as I’m currently going short on the DAX, $DXO gives me a hedge.  Oil will trade around $75 by year’s end, because rising demand will be offset by large inventories and unchanged supply.