Monday, November 11

The coming week will be influenced by lots of reports like the intial claims, Treasury budget, trade balance, etc.  I do not expect those reports to be of any comfort to investors.  Major world indeces lost points during the last few weeks.  This trend was interrupted last week, pushing the DAX higher for the week.

Technically seen, we are experienceing a positive trend.  I thus expect the DAX (now trading @5.598,19) to end somewhere @5.680-50.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be negative.  Monday and Friday postive.  Watch out for high volatility as important news flush the markets.

Monday, September 21

The DAX is now trading 70 points down (5.627,00).  Positive news isn’t helping anymore, thus indicating that the markets are overbought.

The put (on DAX @5.721,89) I’m holding is clearly in positive territory (94 points).  I plan on keeping this position as I expect a negative week, eventually seeing the DAX trading at about 5.580,00.

Monday, 11/14

I expect this week to end on the downside for the DAX at around 5.550 (closed today’s session at 5.620,24). If we have a look at the chart, we can undoubtedly notice that the upward potential has lost ground. A technical correction is to be expected.

I’m currently holding a put bought at 5.614,84

Thursday, September 3

Yesterday I sold my puts on the DAX @5.284,00 (with a 146-points-gain).  See my Twitter updates.

On a previous blog entry I said that the index was heading south for the week (5.350-300).  It went even below what I expected.  I don’t expect major moves on the last two trading sessions, nor do I see the DAX trading at more than 50 points (either up or down) from where it is right now (5.332,00).  Let’s see what the next days look like to evaluate future investment strategies.

Platinum

I’m going long on platinum with “mini future long” BN3H6L, bought @ E 1.73.  Platinum is the worst performer of the commodities on a 52-week basis (-15%).  As of now it’s trading $ 1.240,50.  Technically seen, once the $ 1.295 barrier is reached (year-high) it could proceed its rally towards new highs (~ $1.400 – if not more).  Either way it’s a buy.  Growing car sales (exhaust pipe filters are made out of platinum), stricter European car-emissions standards, and strikes in South Africa are driving factors.

Bearish

Later today I sold a put on the DAX (90-points-gain) I bought last week.  I’m still holding one bought on August 4th that is now +/- 0.

I do think a correction is very likely this week, that might see the DAX trading at 5,350 points for the end of the week, possibly even lower – 5,300 points- during the week (currently at 5.477,06).

Crude oil

On May 7th I bought $DXO @$3.30 (long ETF on crude oil) when oil was trading at around $60. I was planning a long-term strategy and it has currently provided me a non-realized return on invesment of 42.5%.  I must say I’ve been thinking about clearing the position last week when WTI was trading at $73-74, but as I’m currently going short on the DAX, $DXO gives me a hedge.  Oil will trade around $75 by year’s end, because rising demand will be offset by large inventories and unchanged supply.

I’m back – Update

Hey everyone!

First I must apologize for not having posted on this blog for so long.  I’ve been kept very busy lately.

I mostly trade intraday to “intraweek”, which of course can be frustrating if one wants to keep others up to date on every move. Thus, my Twitter page is to be considered the ultimate resource if you want to know my moves with only a few seconds delay.  Particularly in the last 2 years I have not been into stocks a lot. The implementation of a short-term market-strategy has led to great returns during this economic crisis we are currently facing…. I couldn’t suggest any stocks if I wasn’t trading them.

Thus, I would like to inform you that future posts will be shorter and won’t deal with long-term stock strategies as they did until now. I will talk about the strategy I intend to use in the coming day(s), mentioning certificates that I see to be of particular interest to me (calls, puts, ETFs, etc).
Thirdly, I moslty buy positions that mirror the performance of the German stock index:  DAX.  So, future posts will mainly relate to this index. But as all markets are heavily correlated, the strategy I use on the DAX could easily be applied onto other main stock indexes.

My take on JAVA

I have been closely watching Sun Microsystems (JAVA) for a while now, and it looks interesting to me. About 60% of the people surveyed on a famous online news-prediction engine say that the stock, now trading at $5.73 will close at more than $7 by the end of Q1. JAVA hasn’t had one negative session this week, when it opened at $3. I’d recommend waiting a few days for a technical correction, but I wouldn’t like to jump in too late! I’d say buy if it hits the $5/ $5.20-mark by Thursday, and sell as soon as it hits $7.

Buy Oil

I think oil will slightly settle below $40 around the end of next week (Thursday, Friday)… I’m going long on this now with a mid-leveraged ETF. I’d recommend DXO that is trading at $2.69. Expect it to close higher by the end of the 3rd week of February.

In the long-term (3 months to a year) oil is a very good investment. In both scenarios, either stocks gaining again or a recession, which causes the selling of dollars and inflation, will bring oil prices up.

If you feel like playing the “oil-game”, consider buying small-cap firms in Asia. Those look pretty attractive to me, and one stands out in particular: Singapore Petroleum (SIN:S99). With just over $800m in market cap it can be a risky move, but the stock is trading only around $2.6 ($2 when I first began considering it), and it trades at only five (5) times estimated 09 earnings and 70% of book value.