Personal take on recent events

19 05 2010

Hello everyone!

This post will be a little bit different from what I usually write on this blog.

Recently I saw myself lose more money than usual because of political incompetence as of how the financial crisis is being addressed:  the German ban on naked short-selling has been made public during regular U.S. trading hours (unlike U.S. reforms and bailouts that were introduced over the weekend). Volatility and (perhaps exaggerated) losses where generated because investors didn’t have the time to digest the news.  Will the ban stop short-selling Europe?  No!  Have the fundamental financial issues in Europe been solved?  No!  Who is to blame for the current debt crisis?  I think it’s politics and not investors, who otherwise, if politicians got their job done, wouldn’t have the reason to pick on Europe’s economy.

Germany has long profited from the Europe (exports to European countries have increased over time, those same countries cannot devaluate their domestic currencies any longer, production, living costs and borrowing rates are way lower in Germany, etc).  But, as of now, German taxpayers have to come up with the money to save Europe and they want someone to blame for all the debt mess.  The ban on naked short-selling represents just that:  an irrational incomprehension of basic economic principles, unjustified public anger and a manipulation of facts as to push through with social and economic reforms.  This of course came amid Angela Merkel postponing eventual bailout plans for Greece , two weeks ago, which only caused things to deteriorate.

This is only one example.  I see all this regulation fanfare being utterly mislead.  Even Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud!!  I mean, wasn’t the Clinton and Bush administration that forced mortgage lenders to loosen up a bit and start giving money to new homeowners? Goldman Sachs knew, perhaps more than others did, where things were headed and tried to make money out of it.  It’s their job and they have the duty to do so to maximize shareholder value.  If they are being accused of fraudulent behavior than there’s something wrong with how we all think of capitalism.

I think the current financial mess has been caused by senseless politics that cannot keep up with globalization:  How could you ever be thinking to incorporate countries like Germany and others like Greece, Portugal, Italy under one common currency and one interest rate?  Don’t misunderstand me:  the European Union is a great thing, the Euro less, and I feel like the mentality of Europeans, their single governments, the reforms cannot keep pace with the utopic imaginations of some.

Most of us seem to forget how well off we where before the economic crisis.  It’s the free markets:  it goes up and then it goes down (sometimes a lot), but in the long-run, we all profit from it, and it gives everyone a chance.  The current political reforms do not address the underlying issues, and are guiding us towards something we wouldn’t want if we understood what is exactly going on and weren’t being manipulated.





Monday, April 19

19 04 2010

Hello everyone!

Yesterday I sold my puts on the DAX @6.181,32 with a modest gain of 40 points.  The index has broken the positive trend and come off its highs.  Though trading at about 150 points below its recent highs I still cannot draw any conclusion about whether we have witnessed a minor profit-taking process or the beginning of a negative trend.  Some data that is set to be released this week, like continuing and initial claims as well as the PPI are going to give us a broader look of what is to come.

Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean I will stop trading.  I have been following Palm (PALM) for the last two weeks and the stock seems very attractive.  Rumors suggest Palm has charged Goldman Sachs to look for an acquirer.  This of course is not far from reality:  Recent data released by Palm show disappointing sales of what was considered the company’s only hope:  The smartphone Palm Pre.  On top of it, growing competition on Apple’s and Google’s sides seem to force Palm’s board to opt for the company’s sale.

Palm is now trading at $4.82 resulting in a market cap of only $814m.  Its cash reserves of $590m exclude bankruptcy for now.  Still, Elevation Partners, Palm’s largest shareholder, is assumed to have paid an average of $5.50 per stock, which in turn suggests that it is going to try to sell its holding at higher prices and not file for Chapter 11.

RBC Capital assumes that solely Palm’s webOS is worth about $1.70bn to $2.30bn and predicts a selling price of up to $14bn.  Investors could make more than 170% out of it.

As for now Hewlett-Packard seems to be the likeliest of all to snatch Palm, due to its need for a technology platform (to be combined with HP’s hardware platform) and assure its market predominance in the fight against Google and Apple .





Thursday, April 8

8 04 2010

Two days ago I bought puts on the DAX @6.221,13, missing its high by about 30 points.  Since then the index has broken the positive trend initiated in February.  As far as my shorting positions are concerned I’m staying on hold for now (gains of 40-points on current X-DAX basis and 50-points on DAX basis) , although I see slight technical corrections at least in the first trading hours of tommorow as possible.  If the negative trend continues, which is what I think, the DAX could drop some more 20 to 80 points from its close today (6.171,83).





Update – March 1

1 03 2010

Sorry for not having updated this page lately.

Recent worries on Greece’s ability to pay off debt have been arising lately.  Still, recent data like the ISM, GDP data and possibile aid by the IMF for Greece, as well as new billion-dollars-takeovers have reversed the negative trend of the last weeks.

Currently, the DAX is trading @5.697,70 (up almost 100 points).  I expect a slight technical correction for tomorrow, that would only strengthen the positive trend triggered last week, and eventually bring the index @6.100 by the end of March.

The stocks I suggested have not performed sufficiently good as of now, except for Red Back Mining and the long-positions on crude oil.  Nevertheless, I feel confident about the future.





Investment Tips for 2010

6 01 2010

As you all know my investment strategy is mostly based on short-term and day-trading. This year I will open a new fund that will eventually return less, but with a notably lower risk. Right now I have three favorite stocks I think will increase in their value next year and outperform major US/ European indexes.

1. Nanogate (DE:NG7) is a small (market cap: E 28.5m) but very innovative firm specialized in high-tech processing methods for synthetic materials (used in cars, heating systems, etc). Most importantly of all the company has licensed a “Dotfram-Optics” system used in LCD/LED TVs which is able to direct the light generated by the LEDs more efficiently and thus increase the strength of the light-beam by 2 to 10 times, lower consumption, and drastically decrease the thickness of TVs. Total revenue in 2009 was E 10.2 m, but profits were E -2.3m due to the economic crisis. The company states it will turn profits into positive territory in 2010 (E 0.6m). Still the company managed to increase its revenue form 2005 by almost 50%. The stock is currently trading at E 20.5, shows great potential in a quickly expanding market, and might represent an eventual acquisition target.

2. As we have recently seen, gold was continually setting new record highs until last month. Gold was and presumably still is a safe haven for investors fearing inflation, and worrying about the economic situation (hight government deficits). Gold is more and more part of everyone’s portfolio. It is plausible that this mineral will eventually reach the $1,500-mark in two to four years. To be part of the game investors should look at small, unhedged companies with new operating mines. One of them is Red Back Mining (AOB M07), currently trading at E 11.27, with a market cap of $3,3b and a 2010 p/e of 15. The company mostly operates in West-Africa, is debt-free, and said that available gold reserves in one of its mines was 20% higher than previously thought. Red Back Mining aims at doubling its production by 2011. In the short-term investors should expect significant increases in the stock price as the recent highs in gold prices reflect on the firm’s balance sheet.

3. Another market that has been increasingly popular is solar energy. I think the market is pretty crowded and we will see lots of takeovers in the coming years as the “big fish” acquire the small ones, that can only survive as long as the governments heavily subsidize them. Still, solar energy is a growing market in the long-term and those companies should be in every well-allocated investor’s portfolio. PVA Tepla produces hardware to grow crystals used in photovoltaic cells. Every solar-firm needs them, but only a few actually make them. Analysts expect large new solar-energy-markets like the U.S., India and China to increase by 50% per year. PVA (DE: TPE) is currently trading at E15.3 and has a market cap of only E 106m (possible acquisition target). Expected revenue in 2010 is E120m (P/E of 16). From a chart-technical point of view the stock seems very attractive, too.





Monday, December 14

14 12 2009

Hey everyone!

As I predicted last week the DAX got below the 5.600-mark.  It was only for a short as it is currenlty trading @5.790,00.

It seems like the downward trend has been broken.  Expect positive days throghout this week of December that could eventually see the DAX trading @ 5.850-80 points.





Tuesday, December 1

1 12 2009

The week has started and stocks seem to head up endlessly.  Those who followed my advice and went short last week on the DAX @5.777 were able to gain a maximum  of 150 points.

Low volume at the start of last week (but also through the entire month) suggested that the current trend was about to brake.  If the unemployment data is bad (what I’m expecting) the DAX will trade lower and the trend turn out to be fragile.

Currently the DAX is trading @5.781,00.  Expect a slight technical correction (downwards) in the next two trading sessions, perhaps followed by a last positive day.  After that, wait for the unemployment numbers.  Expect than the DAX to trade even below 5.600 through next week.

Also the EUR is trading higher against the USD (now @1,51).  On September 24 I told you (via Twitter) that we would be experiencing all-time highs by the end of the year.  That is due to inflation concerns, the end of the recent carry-trading action, and the Fed not showing to be concerned about the dollar.  Now with only 30 days left to reach that target, we might need more time (~60-70 days).





Thursday, November 13

19 11 2009

As I told you last week I expected the DAX to reach the 5.888-mark.  That did not happen, but I was still able to gain some 10 points on a call.
Volume is now relatively low and it does not seem as it is able to fuel to rally any longer.

The DAX is now trading 1.33% lower @5.710,75.  Expect a slight technical correction during tomorrow’s early trading hours.  That might still turn to be a good entry point to go short.





Monday, November 16

16 11 2009

The DAX had a positive week and closed 10 points above what I expected. Today the index went up 2% (@5.800,77). Technically speaking we might see the DAX testing the 5.888-mark. A break-through could signal a new bull-market wave.





Monday, November 11

9 11 2009

The coming week will be influenced by lots of reports like  initial claims, Treasury budget, trade balance, etc.  I do not expect those reports to be of any comfort to investors.  Major world indeces lost points during the last few weeks.  This trend was interrupted last week, pushing the DAX higher for the week.

Technically seen, we are experienceing a positive trend.  I thus expect the DAX (now trading @5.598,19) to end somewhere @5.680-50.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will be negative.  Monday and Friday postive.  Watch out for high volatility as important news flush the markets.








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